Good morning. It is deep into earnings season, and the numbers coming out of India Inc this week have been a genuine mixed bag, some blowout quarters, some quiet disappointments. Meanwhile the monsoon is still testing large parts of the country, and the world's energy map keeps shifting by the day. Here is what is worth your time this morning.
In today's newsletter: the RBI's rate call and growth upgrade, a nationwide monsoon death toll crossing 100, and Iran and Oman's deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Sensex 78,581.00 UP 0.19% |
Nifty 50 24,624.65 UP 0.04% |
USD/INR 95.16 UP 0.07% |
Brent Crude $79.26 DOWN 0.13% |
The RBI's rate pause and a retreating Brent, easing on hopes of a Hormuz shipping deal, kept sentiment steady, though the Nifty needed a late Closing Auction Session reversal to end the day in the green.
RBI holds repo rate at 5.25% for a fourth straight review, lifts growth outlook
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee, led by governor Sanjay Malhotra, kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% on Wednesday and retained its neutral stance, the fourth consecutive review without a move. The committee cited global uncertainty, particularly the swings in oil markets tied to the standoff in the Middle East, as reason enough to stay cautious rather than cut.
More telling than the pause was the shift in the outlook. The MPC raised its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 6.6%, and trimmed its retail inflation projection to 5% from 5.1%, betting that healthy early Q1 corporate earnings and steady private consumption can absorb whatever volatility oil prices throw at the economy this year.
For anyone with a home or business loan tied to the repo rate, EMIs stay exactly where they were. The real signal is confidence: after months of hedging around Iran-linked oil swings and a soft rupee, the RBI is now willing to treat growth, not inflation, as the more pressing question for the year ahead.
Markets barely reacted to the rate call itself, since a hold was priced in days in advance. What actually pulled the Nifty into positive territory was a late reversal through the exchange's Closing Auction Session in the final minutes of trade, a mechanism most retail investors have never heard of but that increasingly decides how the day's numbers look on paper.
India's monsoon death toll crosses 100 since July
Floods and landslides triggered by this year's monsoon have killed more than 100 people across India since July, with thousands still displaced from their homes. Assam has been hit hardest, with at least 87 dead and Sivasagar district alone accounting for 47 of those deaths, while Kerala has recorded at least 15 deaths and seven missing after days of relentless rain.
Jammu and Kashmir has seen at least 31 people killed by intense rain bursts, and Assam's flooding alone displaced around 700,000 people after the Brahmaputra overflowed. Scientists studying the pattern point to climate change as a factor making South Asia's monsoon increasingly erratic and destructive, even as the rains remain essential to the farm income millions of households depend on.
Iran and Oman reach agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Iran said it has reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, a potential step toward reopening the waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil. Under the emerging deal, inbound tankers would transit Iran's territorial waters while outbound traffic sails through Oman's, with the two sides still working out service fees for the arrangement.
The terms are not yet final. Tehran is seeking a fee of 5 to 7% of cargo value, while Oman has proposed 3%, and the draft still awaits sign-off from Iran's leadership. Oil held its losses on the news, with Brent closing above $79 a barrel. For India, which imports more than 80% of its crude and gets a meaningful share of it through Hormuz, a durable deal would matter directly for fuel prices, the rupee and the same inflation outlook the RBI leaned on this week.
Breaking.exe
Airtel's blowout quarter. Bharti Airtel's net profit jumped 37.3% to ₹8,167 crore in the June quarter, with revenue up 18.4% as customers kept upgrading to premium plans across its India and Africa operations. |
Policybazaar's turnaround. PB Fintech's net profit nearly doubled to ₹162.9 crore, with operating revenue up 40% as insurance premiums and lending disbursals both grew sharply through the quarter. |
Nazara's rough patch. Gaming firm Nazara Technologies swung to a net loss of ₹79.92 crore in the June quarter as sales slipped 14%, a reminder that the sector's growth story is far from linear. |
Pangaea Revisited
Gaza withdrawal conditions. The US-led Board of Peace says Israel will not withdraw from Gaza until Hamas fully disarms, a stance that has stalled talks over the next phase of the ceasefire. |
Korean peninsula tension. North Korea's Kim Yo Jong warned of new military options after Japan test-fired a Tomahawk missile, accusing Tokyo of turning its forces toward pre-emptive strike capability. |
Hasina resurfaces. Ousted Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina was expected to make a rare public appearance from her exile in New Delhi, two years after being toppled. |
Lebanon strikes resume. Israel struck southern Lebanon over what it called a ceasefire violation by Hezbollah, even as the two sides held separate talks in Rome. |
Also, Also, Also
ONGC's record quarter. State-run ONGC's net profit more than doubled to ₹17,034 crore, its highest-ever quarterly pre-tax profit, on the back of stronger crude oil realisations. |
Aurobindo's steady growth. Aurobindo Pharma's profit rose 25.2% to ₹1,032 crore, helped by robust volume gains in Europe and the US and a clutch of new product launches. |
More rain ahead. The IMD issued a yellow alert for Delhi and warned of heavy rain across several northern and central states over the coming days. |
Turbulent landing. An Air India flight from Phuket to Delhi dropped nearly 300 feet mid-air, injuring 17 people before landing safely, with an investigation now underway. |